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TACO Tuesday Again

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TACO Tuesday Again

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Expect much self-serving market chuckling about ‘TACO Tuesday’ again as Monday’s US-China trade talks in London extend into today and headlines are that the US may loosen its export controls on some goods if China releases its on rare earths.

Is that really a TACO though? These were unilateral US moves against China taken after the recent Geneva agreement, so dropping them this only takes us back to where we were weeks ago, and presumably for the clear deliverable of getting rare earths flowing again as the US had expected…. until the US has them flowing from elsewhere, that is. A true TACO --Truly Appalling ‘Clever’ Option’-- would be the White House not doing the latter because economists tell them that “because markets” local rare earth processing is more expensive.

As evidence of a distinct lack of poultry, which coincidentally came up in a conversation yesterday, in WW1, the British found they were reliant on Germany for optical glass needed for binoculars, while Germany was short of the rubber it had sourced from the British Empire. Both decided to swap these strategic goods with each other via Switzerland (though this is disputed by some).

Interestingly, the Chinese press report of these talks state “The US...trade deficit in goods with China is not only the inevitable result of the structural problems of the US economy but also determined by the comparative advantages of the two countries." Who knew neo-mercantilist Chinese economists were the same Ricardian neoliberals as at western universities and institutions? Of course, they aren’t - but they know writing it wins over those who dine on TACOs.

And chew on May’s Chinese trade data: exports to the US -34.5%; to the EU +12%; to Germany +21.5%; to France +24.1%; and to Netherlands +7.1%. This isn’t a US-China problem and those that taco that approach will deindustrialise.

Meanwhile, it’s unclear how much chickening out there is in geopolitics. Ukrainian drones just hit another Russian military target, destroying two fighter jets, as Germany’s outgoing spy boss and NATO chief Rutte both warned Russia could launch an attack against it within five years. “Let’s not kid ourselves, we are all on the eastern flank. There is no east or west, there is just NATO,” Mr Rutte said, and the danger “will not disappear when the war in Ukraine ends.”

Rutte specifically told the UK: “Spend more or learn to speak Russian.” To help Brits appalled at the idea of learning a foreign language, and those who believe it might be better than vast state spending when fiscal deficits and public debt are sky high: “Когда мне снизят центральную банковскую процентную ставку?” (‘When do I get my rate cut?’ – that’s all that matters, right?)

Even Canada is moving its Coast Guard to national defence and PM Carney will announce defence spending will be NATO’s 2% of GDP target this fiscal year - just in time for it to rise to 5% at its upcoming summit.

Of course, Europe is just one front. Iran will reportedly reject the proposed US nuclear deal and offer its own that allows it nuclear enrichment and demands the “forced” destruction of Israel’s nuclear arsenal, according to the New York Times. Israeli PM Netanyahu rushed from a court appearance to speak to Trump about it, where he was told the US sees Iran and Gaza as linked and wants deals “so there’s no destruction and death.” Expect more US-Iran talks this weekend. However, that’s as Iran's top security body says the intel it just obtained about Israel’s nuclear facilities mean it could launch counterattacks should Israel strike its.

And if that isn’t enough, India is ready to strike ‘deep into Pakistan’ if provoked, New Delhi just warned.

Meanwhile, President Trump sent 700 marines to LA on top of the National Guard to try to restore order following riots at the enforcement of the deportation of illegal immigrants, upping the political ante, as Governor Newsom sued to have this reversed. As the New York Times claims ‘The US is no longer a stable country’, recall this is the same US that has seen past presidential assassinations, with two attempts against Trump in 2024; this long list of riots; that past White Houses have sent in federal forces to restore order at the state level; and, for ‘doomers’, that the refusal of states to accede to federal authority was related to the US Civil War.

This matters for markets, and not just because the US is already hardly looking the safe-haven it once did. Logically, if Trump’s LA action fails, a template may be set that while the US border is now closed, mass deportations de facto cannot happen, implying the current default for labor markets. However, if Trump succeeds, it suggests he may be able to press ahead like past presidents (Reagan removed 8 million people, and Clinton and George W. Bush 10 million each), with very different labor market implications. Moreover, success would boost Trump’s standing; and failure would both weaken it and imply a de facto one-way turnstile border with longer-term socio-economic implications and politically polarizing effects. Similar issues are of course being seen in many western democracies at the moment.

On which note, French President Macron refused to rule out new legislative elections as soon as next month, though his last try at that backfired on him, seeing gains for the far right and left vs. his centrists.

Very much in the 2025 spirit, a report also claims the Pentagon has been faking UFO sightings to keep people unaware of their own breakthroughs. I have a friend who would immediately respond: “That’s what they want you to think.” Yet at the same time, Axios says the ‘scariest reality’ is that the firms eagerly building AI don’t know how or why it works but are sitting back and watching it let rip. I would say that as new graduates already find entry-level jobs are being replaced by AI that potential mass unemployment ahead is a pretty scary thought too.

Lastly, in markets, China is to deepen its use of a $1.5 trillion state housing fund to offer cheaper mortgages than its state-owned banks can. That’s certainly a new wrinkle on ‘what is GDP for?’ and does suggest some fine-tuning of the economy.

You put all this together and it’s really hard to make a convincing case that we are seeing any real ‘chickening out’. Chicken Littles or headless chickens, possibly. Truly Appalling ‘Clever’ Options, certainly.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/10/2025 - 10:45
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jhart
3 days ago
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Making money betting on TACO
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Christopher Allan Webber: Hitchhiker's guide to data formats

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Just thinking out loud this morning on what data formats there are and how they work with the world:

  • XML: 2000's hippest technology. Combines a clear, parsable tree based syntax with extension mechanisms and a schema system. Still moderately popular, though not as it once was. Tons of tooling. Many seem to think the tooling makes it overly complex, and JSON has taken over much of its place. Has the advantage of unambiguity over vanilla JSON, if you know how to use it right, but more effort to work with.
  • SGML: XML's soupier grandmother. Influential.
  • HTML: Kind of like SGML and XML but for some specific data. Too bad XHTML never fulfilled its dream. Without XHTML, it's even soupier than SGML, but there's enough tooling for soup-processing that most developers don't worry about it.
  • JSON: Also tree-based, but keeps things minimal, just your basic types. Loved by web developers everywhere. Also ambiguous since on its own, it's schema-free... this may lead to conflicts between applications. But if you know the source and the destination perfectly it's fine. Has the advantage of transforming into basic types in pretty much every language and widespread tooling. (Don't be evil about being evil, though? #vaguejokes) If you want to send JSON between a lot of locations and want to be unambiguous in your meaning, or if you want more than just the basic types provided, you're going to need something more... we'll come to that in a bit.
  • S-expressions: the language of lisp, and lispers claim you can represent anything as s-expressions, which is true, but also that's kind of ambiguous on its own. Capable also of representing code just as well, which is why lispers claim benefits of symmetry and "code that can write code". However, serializing "pure data" is also perfectly possible with s-expressions. So many variations between languages though... it's more of a "generalized family" or even better, a pattern, of data (and code) formats. Some damn cool representations of some of these other formats via sexps. Some people get scared away by all the parens, though, which is too bad, because (though this strays into code + data, not just data) homoiconicity can't be beat. (Maybe Wisp can help there?)
  • Canonical s-expressions: S-expressions, with a canonical representation... cool! Most developers don't know about it, but was designed for public key cryptography usage, and still actively used there (libgcrypt uses canonical s-expressions under the hood, for instance). No schema system, and actually pretty much just lists and binary strings, but the binary strings can be marked with "display hints" so systems can know how to unpack the data into appropriate types.
  • RDF and friends: The "unicode" of graph-oriented data. Not a serialization itself, but a specification on the conceptual modeling of data, and you'll hear "linked data" people talking about it a lot. A graph of "subject, predicate, object" triples. Pretty cool once you learn what it is, though the introductory material is really overwhelming. (Also, good luck representing ordered lists). However, there is no one serialization of RDF, which leads to much confusion among many developers (including myself, while being explained to the contrary, for a long time). For example, rdf/xml looks like XML, but woe be upon ye who uses XML tooling upon it. So, deserialzie to RDF, then deal with RDF in RDF land, then serialize again... that's the way to go with RDF. Has more sane formats than just rdf/xml, for example Turtle is easy to read. RDF community seems to get mad when you want to interpret data as anything other than RDF, which can be very off-putting, though the goal of a "platonic form" of data is highly admirable. That said, graph based tooling is definitely harder for most developers to work with than tree-based tooling, but hopefully "the jQuery of RDF" library will become available some day, and things will be easier. Interesting stuff to learn, anyway!
  • json-ld: A "linked data format", technically can transform itself into RDF, but unlike other forms of RDF syntax, can often be parsed just on its own as simple JSON. So, say you want to have JSON and keep things easy for most of your users who just use their favorite interpreted language to extract key value pairs from your API. Okay, no problem for them! But suddenly you're also consuming JSON from multiple origins, and one of them uses "run" to say "run a mile" whereas your system uses "run" to mean "run a program". How do you tell these apart? With json-ld you can "expand" a JSON representation with supplied context to an unambiguous form, and you can "compact" it down again to the terms you know and understand in your system, leaving out those you don't. No more executing a program for a mile!
  • Microformats and RDFa: Two communities which are notoriously and exasperatingly at odds with each other for over a decade, so why do I link them together? Well, both of these take the same approach of embedding data in HTML. Great when you have HTML for your data to go with, though not all data needs an HTML wrapper. But it's good to be able to extract it! RDFa simply extracts to RDF, which we've discussed plenty; Microformats extracts to its own thing. Frequent form of contention between these groups is about vocabulary, and how to represent vocabulary. RDFa people like their vocabulary to have canonical URIs for each term (well, that's an RDF thing, so not surprising), Microformats people like to document everything in a wiki. Arguments about extensibility is a frequent topic... if you want to get into that, see Amy Guy's summary of things.

Of course, there's more data formats than that. Heck, even on top of these data formats there's a lot more out there (these days I spend a lot of time working on ActivityStreams 2.0 related tooling, which is just JSON with a specific structure, until you want to get fancier, add extensions, or jump into linked data land, in which case you can process it as json-ld). And maybe you'd also find stuff like Cap'n Proto or Protocol Buffers to be interesting. But the above are the formats that, today, I think are generally most interesting or impactful upon my day to day work. I hope this guide was interesting to you!

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jhart
3518 days ago
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Our lives are lived through the data that we create.
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An animated guide to all the different ways of making coffee

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An animated guide to all the different ways of making coffee

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jhart
3546 days ago
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Happy Coffee Day.
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Security wares like Kaspersky AV can make you more vulnerable to attacks

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Enlarge / A screenshot showing proof-of-concept exploit code working against Kaspersky antivirus software. (credit: Tavis Ormandy)

Antivirus applications and other security software are supposed to make users more secure, but a growing body of research shows that in some cases, they can open people to hacks they otherwise wouldn't be vulnerable to.

The latest example is antivirus and security software from Kaspersky Lab. Tavis Ormandy, a member of Google's Project Zero vulnerability research team, recently analyzed the widely used programs and quickly found a raft of easy-to-exploit bugs that made it possible to remotely execute malicious code on the underlying computers. Kaspersky has already fixed many of the bugs and is in the process of repairing the remaining ones. In a blog post published Tuesday, he said it's likely he's not the only one to know of such game-over vulnerabilities.

"We have strong evidence that an active black market trade in antivirus exploits exists," he wrote, referring to recent revelations that hacked exploit seller Hacking Team sold weaponized attacks targeting antivirus software from Eset.

He continued: "Research shows that it’s an easily accessible attack surface that dramatically increases exposure to targeted attacks. For this reason, the vendors of security products have a responsibility to uphold the highest secure development standards possible to minimise the potential for harm caused by their software. Ignoring the question of efficacy, attempting to reduce one’s exposure to opportunistic malware should not result in an increased exposure to targeted attacks."

As Ormandy suggested, the bugs he found in Kaspersky products would most likely be exploited in highly targeted attacks, such as those the National Security Agency might carry out against a terrorism suspect or spies pursuing an espionage campaign might carry out against the CEO of a large corporation. That means most people are probably better off running antivirus software than foregoing it, at least if their computers run Windows. Still, the results are concerning because they show that the very software we rely on to keep us safe in many cases makes us more vulnerable.

Kaspersky isn't the only security software provider to introduce bugs in their products. Earlier this month, security researcher Kristian Erik Hermansen reported finding four vulnerabilities in the core product marketed by security firm FireEye. One of them made it possible for attackers to retrieve sensitive password data stored on the server running the program. Ormandy has also uncovered serious vulnerabilities in AV software from Sophos and Eset.

In a statement, Kaspersky Lab officials wrote, "We would like to assure all our clients and customers that vulnerabilities publicly disclosed in a blogpost by Google Project Zero researcher, Mr. Tavis Ormandy, have already been fixed in all affected Kaspersky Lab products and solutions. Our specialists have no evidence that these vulnerabilities have been exploited in the wild."

The statement went on to say that Kaspersky Lab developers are making architectural changes to their products that will let them better resist exploit attempts. One change included the implementation of stack buffer overflow protection, which Ormandy referred to as "/GS" in his blog post. Other planned changes include the expansion of mitigations such as address space layout randomization and data execution prevention (for much more on these security measures see How security flaws work: The buffer overflow by Ars Technology Editor Peter Bright). Ormandy thanked Kaspersky Lab for its "record breaking response times" following his report.

Still, the message is clear. To perform, security software must acquire highly privileged access to the computers they protect, and all too often this sensitive position can be abused. Ormandy recommended that AV developers build security sandboxes into their products that isolate downloaded files from core parts of the computer operating system.

"The chromium sandbox is open source and used in multiple major products," he wrote. "Don't wait for the network worm that targets your product, or for targeted attacks against your users, add sandboxing to your development roadmap today."

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jhart
3549 days ago
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Ameritrade's thinkorswim Challenge: Teaching America's Youth How To Invest

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Ameritrade's thinkorswim Challenge: Teaching America's Youth How To Invest
Benzinga - 14 minutes ago
Nicole Sherrod, managing director of trading for TD Ameritrade, said the company's college level virtual trading competition called thinkorswim Challenge could help alleviate Gen Z's investing problems.
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jhart
3560 days ago
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Amazing competition
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App Submissions on Google Play Now Reviewed by Staff

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jhart
3741 days ago
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To all Android developers out there, make sure you update your ratings.
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